12+ Helmut Norpoth Pictures. The list is long and. The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall.
Norpoth said his model predicted trump's election in 2016 partially by discounting opinion surveys.
Primary model is a scientific model of forecasting election results. Phd, university of michigan, 1974. I don't remember any uncontested primary campaign for a sitting president like this, stony brook university professor helmut norpoth. Election forecasting. in oxford bibliographies in political science, ed.